Not every part of the energy market is moving the same way. Brent has held a $90 to $115 range since the Hormuz closure, with markets still pricing real uncertainty. Meanwhile, US production is failing to pick up the way higher prices would normally trigger.
The downstream picture is where things get more uneven. The products that come out of a refinery are not all moving with crude in the same way. Diesel and jet fuel are tighter than gasoline because the specific grades stuck in the Gulf are the ones that make them. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which the US has spent the last year refilling, has started drawing down again. Retail gas is up roughly $1.10 a gallon. Planting season started this month into a fertilizer shock, and grain futures are already pricing lower harvest yields. They're all interconnected and will eventually show up in operating numbers.
A political resolution would not unwind this overnight. Tanker insurance, damaged infrastructure, and shipping logistics mean even a ceasefire takes weeks to translate back into normal flows. If the closure runs another month or two, the question shifts from supply shock to demand destruction.
Eight charts on where things actually stand.Ryze_Energy_Update_May2026.pdf